Plümper, T., Neumayer, E.

Lockdown policies and the dynamics of the first wave of the Sars-CoV-2 pandemic in Europe

(2022) Journal of European Public Policy, 29 (3), pp. 321-341.

 

DOI: 10.1080/13501763.2020.1847170

ABSTRACT: This paper follows European countries as they struggled through the first wave of the Sars-CoV-2 pandemic. We analyze when countries were confronted with the virus, how long it took until the number of new infections peaked and at what level of infections that peak was achieved via social distancing and lockdown policies. Most European countries were able to successfully end the first wave of the pandemic–defined as a two-week incidence rate smaller than 10 cases per 100,000 people. We find that countries in which the virus made significant landfall later in time enjoyed a latecomer advantage that some of these countries squandered, however, by not responding quickly enough and that an early lockdown was more effective than a hard lockdown. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

 

 

Plümper, T., Neumayer, E.

Fueling the Covid-19 pandemic: Summer school holidays and incidence rates in German districts

(2021) Journal of Public Health (United Kingdom), 43 (3), pp. E415-E422.

 

DOI: 10.1093/pubmed/fdab080

ABSTRACT: Background: The Robert-Koch-Institute reports that during the summer holiday period a foreign country is stated as the most likely place of infection for an average of 27 and a maximum of 49% of new SARS-CoV-2 infections in Germany. Methods: Cross-sectional study on observational data. In Germany, summer school holidays are coordinated between states and spread out over 13 weeks. Employing a dynamic model with district fixed effects, we analyze the association between these holidays and weekly incidence rates across 401 German districts. Results: We find effects of the holiday period of around 45% of the average district incidence rates in Germany during their respective final week of holidays and the 2 weeks after holidays end. Western states tend to experience stronger effects than Eastern states. We also find statistically significant interaction effects of school holidays with per capita taxable income and the share of foreign residents in a district's population. Conclusions: Our results suggest that changed behavior during the holiday season accelerated the pandemic and made it considerably more difficult for public health authorities to contain the spread of the virus by means of contact tracing. Germany's public health authorities did not prepare adequately for this acceleration. © 2021 The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health.

 

 

Barberia, L., Plümper, T., Whitten, G.D.

The political science of Covid-19: An introduction

(2021) Social Science Quarterly, 102 (5), pp. 2045-2054.

 

DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.13069

ABSTRACT: Political decisions, constellations, and behaviors exert a large influence of the dynamics of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (Sars-CoV-2) pandemic. Politics influences the choice of containment policies and the compliance with these policies—and therefore ultimately the epidemiological situation in each country, state, district, or even neighborhood. This introduction puts the articles collected in this special issue into the broader perspective of the social science literature on Covid-19. © 2021 The Authors. Social Science Quarterly published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Southwestern Social Science Association.

 

 

Plümper, T., Neumayer, E., Pfaff, K.G.

The strategy of protest against Covid-19 containment policies in Germany

(2021) Social Science Quarterly, 102 (5), pp. 2236-2250.

 

DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.13066

ABSTRACT: Objectives: The article analyzes the epidemiological and political logics of protest against containment policies in Germany. To maximize the mobilization potential, protest organizers organize more protest events when Covid-19 mortality rates are low, the stringency of containment policies is high, and in districts in which the vote share of mainstream parties is traditionally low. Method: Using a negative binomial model, we analyze the number of protest events in a sample of 401 German districts over the period from March to May 2020. Results: We find robust positive predicted effects of the stringency of containment policies and negative predicted effects for the mortality rate and the strengths of mainstream parties. Conclusion: We interpret these findings as evidence of the strategic behavior of protest organizers that target protest participation and mobilization to keep the movement alive and potentially grow it. © 2021 The Authors. Social Science Quarterly published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Southwestern Social Science Association.

 

 

Neumayer, E., Plümper, T., Shaikh, M.

The logics of COVID-19 travel restrictions between European countries

(2021) Social Science Quarterly, 102 (5), pp. 2134-2154.

 

DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.13016

ABSTRACT: Objectives: The article analyzes the existence of bilateral travel restrictions between European countries during the second wave of the Sars-CoV-2 pandemic. The paper tests three sets of theoretically derived predictions, which follow epidemiological, economic, and political logics. Method: We analyze a sample of directed bilateral travel restrictions between 27 European countries: 27.26 = 702 country dyads over a period of 6 months during the second wave of the pandemic. Results: We find robust and relevant results for the difference in incidence rates, for income from tourism, for trust in government and public administration and for political inclusiveness. Conclusion: Our analyses demonstrates that economic and political logics exert a strong influence on containment measures and thus stress the relevance of forming a large societal and political coalition against the pandemic. © 2021 The Authors. Social Science Quarterly published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Southwestern Social Science Association.

 

 

Laroze, D., Neumayer, E., Plümper, T.

COVID-19 does not stop at open borders: Spatial contagion among local authority districts during England's first wave

(2021) Social Science and Medicine, 270, art. no. 113655, .

 

DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113655

ABSTRACT: Infectious diseases generate spatial dependence or contagion not only between individuals but also between geographical units. New infections in one local district do not just depend on properties of the district, but also on the strength of social ties of its population with populations in other districts and their own degree of infectiousness. We show that SARS-CoV-2 infections during the first wave of the pandemic spread across district borders in England as a function of pre-crisis commute to work streams between districts. Crucially, the strength of this spatial contagion depends on the phase of the epidemic. In the first pre-lockdown phase, the spread of the virus across district borders is high. During the lockdown period, the cross-border spread of new infections slows down significantly. Spatial contagion increases again after the lockdown is eased but not statistically significantly so. © 2020

 

 

Neumayer, E., Plümper, T.

Women's economic rights in developing countries and the gender gap in migration to Germany

(2021) IZA Journal of Development and Migration, 12 (1), .

 

DOI: 10.2478/izajodm-2021-0013

ABSTRACT: There is a large variation across countries of origin in the gender composition of migrants coming to Germany. We argue that women's economic rights in developing countries of origin have three effects on their migration prospects to a place like Germany that is far away and difficult to reach. First, the lower are women's economic rights the fewer women have access to and control over the resources needed to migrate to Germany. Second, the lower are the rights the lower is women's agency to make or otherwise influence migration decisions. These two constraining effects on the female share in migrant populations dominate the opposing third effect that stems from low levels of women's economic rights generating a potentially powerful push factor. We find corroborating evidence in our analysis of the gender composition of migration to Germany over the period 2009-2017. © 2021 Eric Neumayer et al., published by Sciendo.

 

 

Plümper, T., Neumayer, E.

Human rights violations and the gender gap in asylum recognition rates

(2021) Journal of European Public Policy, 28 (11), pp. 1807-1826.

 

DOI: 10.1080/13501763.2020.1787488

ABSTRACT: During the recent European refugee crisis, more than two million people applied for asylum in Germany. Female applicants stand a higher chance to gain protection than male applicants. Whilst small on average, this gender gap in asylum recognition rates varies strongly across countries of origin which has remained little noticed. We analyse the gender gap in asylum recognition rates for the 56 major countries of origin of refugees whose asylum claims are decided on over the period 2012–2018. We show that both general or gender-unspecific human rights abuses and gender-specific human rights violations are associated with cross-country variation in the gender gap in recognition rates–but in opposite ways. Specifically, we find that the gender gap is lower for refugees coming from countries with worse general human rights abuses in the form of political terror perpetrated by state agents but is higher for refugees from countries with a higher prevalence of female genital mutilation and a higher prevalence of child marriage. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

 

 

Plümper, T., Neumayer, E.

The pandemic predominantly hits poor neighbourhoods? SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 fatalities in German districts

(2020) European Journal of Public Health, 30 (6), pp. 1176-1180.

 

DOI: 10.1093/eurpub/ckaa168

ABSTRACT: Background: Reports from the UK and the USA suggest that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) predominantly affects poorer neighbourhoods. This article paints a more complex picture by distinguishing between a first and second phase of the pandemic. The initial spread of infections and its correlation with socio-economic factors depends on how the virus first entered a country. The second phase of the pandemic begins when individuals start taking precautionary measures and governments implement lockdowns. In this phase, the spread of the virus depends on the ability of individuals to socially distance themselves, which is to some extent socially stratified. Methods: We analyze the geographical distribution of known cumulative cases and fatalities per capita in an ecological analysis across local districts in Germany distinguishing between the first and the second phase of the pandemic. Results: In Germany, the virus first entered via individuals returning from skiing in the Alps and other international travel. In this first phase, we find a positive association between the wealth of a district and infection rates and a negative association with indicators of social deprivation. During the second phase and controlling for path dependency, districts with a higher share of university-educated employees record fewer new infections and deaths and richer districts record fewer deaths, districts with a higher unemployment rate record more deaths. Conclusions: The social stratification of COVID-19 changes substantively across the two phases of the pandemic in Germany. Only in the second phase and controlling for temporal dependence does COVID-19 predominantly hit poorer districts. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

 

 

Plümper, T., Traunmüller, R.

The sensitivity of sensitivity analysis

(2020) Political Science Research and Methods, 8 (1), pp. 149-159.

 

DOI: 10.1017/psrm.2018.30

ABSTRACT: This article evaluates the reliability of sensitivity tests. Using Monte Carlo methods we show that, first, the definition of robustness exerts a large influence on the robustness of variables. Second and more importantly, our results also demonstrate that inferences based on sensitivity tests are most likely to be valid if determinants and confounders are almost uncorrelated and if the variables included in the true model exert a strong influence on outcomes. Third, no definition of robustness reliably avoids both false positives and false negatives. We find that for a wide variety of data-generating processes, rarely used definitions of robustness perform better than the frequently used model averaging rule suggested by Sala-i-Martin. Fourth, our results also suggest that Leamer's extreme bounds analysis and Bayesian model averaging are extremely unlikely to generate false positives. Thus, if based on these inferential criteria a variable is robust, it is almost certain to belong into the empirical model. Fifth and finally, we also show that researchers should avoid drawing inferences based on lack of robustness. © The European Political Science Association 2019.

 

 

Plümper, T., Troeger, V.E., Neumayer, E.

Case selection and causal inferences in qualitative comparative research

(2019) PLoS ONE, 14 (7), art. no. e0219727, .

 

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0219727

ABSTRACT: Traditionally, social scientists perceived causality as regularity. As a consequence, qualitative comparative case study research was regarded as unsuitable for drawing causal inferences since a few cases cannot establish regularity. The dominant perception of causality has changed, however. Nowadays, social scientists define and identify causality through the counterfactual effect of a treatment. This brings causal inference in qualitative comparative research back on the agenda since comparative case studies can identify counterfactual treatment effects. We argue that the validity of causal inferences from the comparative study of cases depends on the employed case-selection algorithm. We employ Monte Carlo techniques to demonstrate that different case-selection rules strongly differ in their ex ante reliability for making valid causal inferences and identify the most and the least reliable case selection rules. © 2019 Plümper et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

 

 

Plümper, T., Troeger, V.E.

Not so harmless after all: The fixed-effects model

(2019) Political Analysis, 27 (1), pp. 21-45.

 

DOI: 10.1017/pan.2018.17

ABSTRACT: The fixed-effects estimator is biased in the presence of dynamic misspecification and omitted within variation correlated with one of the regressors. We argue and demonstrate that fixed-effects estimates can amplify the bias from dynamic misspecification and that with omitted time-invariant variables and dynamic misspecifications, the fixed-effects estimator can be more biased than the 'naive' OLS model. We also demonstrate that the Hausman test does not reliably identify the least biased estimator when time-invariant and time-varying omitted variables or dynamic misspecifications exist. Accordingly, empirical researchers are ill-advised to rely on the Hausman test for model selection or use the fixed-effects model as default unless they can convincingly justify the assumption of correctly specified dynamics. Our findings caution applied researchers to not overlook the potential drawbacks of relying on the fixed-effects estimator as a default. The results presented here also call upon methodologists to study the properties of estimators in the presence of multiple model misspecifications. Our results suggest that scholars ought to devote much more attention to modeling dynamics appropriately instead of relying on a default solution before they control for potentially omitted variables with constant effects using a fixed-effects specification. Copyright © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the Society for Political Methodology.

 

 

Plümper, T., Laroze, D., Neumayer, E.

The limits to equivalent living conditions: regional disparities in premature mortality in Germany

(2018) Journal of Public Health (Germany), 26 (3), pp. 309-319.

 

DOI: 10.1007/s10389-017-0865-5

ABSTRACT: Aim: Despite the country’s explicit political goal to establish equivalent living conditions across Germany, significant inequality continues to exist. We argue that premature mortality is an excellent proxy variable for testing the claim of equivalent living conditions since the root causes of premature death are socioeconomic. Subject and methods: We analyse variation in premature mortality across Germany’s 402 districts and cities in 2014. Results: Premature mortality spatially clusters among geographically contiguous and proximate districts/cities and is higher in more urban places as well as in districts/cities located further north and in former East Germany. We demonstrate that, first, socioeconomic factors account for 62% of the cross-sectional variation in years of potential life lost and 70% of the variation in the premature mortality rate. Second, we show that these socioeconomic factors either entirely or almost fully eliminate the systematic spatial patterns that exist in premature mortality. Conclusion: On its own, fiscal redistribution, the centrepiece of how Germany aspires to establish its political goal, cannot generate equivalent living conditions in the absence of a comprehensive set of economic and social policies at all levels of political administration, tackling the disparities in socioeconomic factors that collectively result in highly unequal living conditions. © 2017, The Author(s).

 

 

Epifanio, M., Plümper, T.

European integration and the race to the top in counterterrorist regulations

(2018) Journal of European Public Policy, 25 (5), pp. 787-799.

 

DOI: 10.1080/13501763.2017.1310276

ABSTRACT: International terrorism can generate a ‘race to the top’ in counterterrorist regulations among countries potentially exposed to terrorist attacks. This ‘regulatory competition’ can be smoothed by international co-operation and an agreement on common minimum standards in counterterrorist regulations. We argue, and show empirically, that European Union members states have implemented a significantly lower number of counterterrorist regulations than countries that do not belong to the European Union. This finding supports the argument that the implementation of a minimum regulatory standard reduces the competitive upward pressure in counterterrorist regulations. © 2017 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

 

 

Plümper, T., Laroze, D., Neumayer, E.

Regional inequalities in premature mortality in Great Britain

(2018) PLoS ONE, 13 (2), art. no. e0193488, .

 

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0193488

ABSTRACT: Premature mortality exhibits strong spatial patterns in Great Britain. Local authorities that are located further North and West, that are more distant from its political centre London and that are more urban tend to have a higher premature mortality rate. Premature mortality also tends to cluster among geographically contiguous and proximate local authorities. We develop a novel analytical research design that relies on spatial pattern recognition to demonstrate that an empirical model that contains only socio-economic variables can eliminate these spatial patterns almost entirely. We demonstrate that socioeconomic factors across local authority districts explain 81 percent of variation in female and 86 percent of variation in male premature mortality in 2012–14. As our findings suggest, policy-makers cannot hope that health policies alone suffice to significantly reduce inequalities in health. Rather, it requires strong efforts to reduce the inequalities in socio-economic factors, or living conditions for short, in order to overcome the spatial disparities in health, of which premature mortality is a clear indication. © 2018 Plümper et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

 

 

Plümper, T., Quiroz Flores, A., Neumayer, E.

The double-edged sword of learning from disasters: Mortality in the Tohoku tsunami

(2017) Global Environmental Change, 44, pp. 49-56.

 

DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.03.002

ABSTRACT: Learning from natural disasters is predominantly regarded as beneficial: Individuals and governments learn to cope and thereby reduce damage and loss of life in future disasters. We argue against this standard narrative and point to two principal ways in which learning from past disasters can have detrimental consequences: First, investment in protective infrastructures may not only stimulate settlement in hazard-prone areas but also foster a false impression of security, which can prevent individuals from fleeing to safe places when hazard strikes. Second, if disaster events in the past did not have catastrophic consequences, affected individuals do not take future events sufficiently seriously. As a consequence, learning from disasters is a double-edged sword that can prevent large scale damage and human loss most of the time but results in the worst case scenario when a disaster occurs at an unexpected scale and public preparedness measures fail. We demonstrate the devastating impact of misplaced trust in public preparedness measures and misleading lessons drawn from past experience for the case of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. Our paper contributes to the literatures on ‘negative learning’ and ‘hazard maladaptation’ by demonstrating that a lack of past experience with tsunami mortality in a municipality substantively increases mortality in the Tohoku tsunami. © 2017 Elsevier Ltd

 

 

Neumayer, E., Plümper, T.

Spatial spill-overs from terrorism on tourism: Western victims in Islamic destination countries

(2016) Public Choice, 169 (3-4), pp. 195-206.

 

DOI: 10.1007/s11127-016-0359-y

ABSTRACT: We analyze spatial spillover effects in international tourism as a consequence of transnational terrorist attacks. Specifically, we hypothesize that attacks executed in Islamic countries on citizens from Western countries will generate spatial spillovers of three kinds. Firstly, tourism from the victims’ countries to Islamic destination countries other than the location of the attacks will decline. Secondly, tourism from other Western countries to the country in which the attacks took place will decline. Thirdly, tourism from other Western countries to other Islamic destination countries also will decline. These spatial spillover effects occur because the terror message is strategically addressed at Western citizens in general rather than the tourists’ countries of origin per se. Tourists update their priors after such attacks, rationally expecting a greater chance of becoming victimized in other Islamic countries as well, given the transnational character of Islamist terror groups and the limited capacity of governments in Islamic countries to prevent such attacks. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media New York.

 

 

Neumayer, E and Plümper, T.

W.

(2015) Political Science Research and Methods 4 (1), 175–93.

 

DOI: 10.1017/psrm.2014.40

In spatial econometrics, W refers to the matrix that weights the value of the spatially lagged variable of other units. As unimportant as it may appear, W specifies, or at least ought to specify, why and how other units of analysis affect the unit under observation. This article shows that theory must inform five crucial specification choices taken by researchers. Specifically, the connectivity variable employed in W must capture the causal mechanism of spatial dependence. The specification of W further determines the relative relevance of source units from which spatial dependence emanates, and whether receiving units are assumed to be identically or differentially exposed to spatial stimulus. Multiple dimensions of spatial dependence can be modeled as independent, substitutive or conditional links. Finally, spatial effects need not go exclusively in one direction, but can be bi-directional; recipients can simultaneously experience positive spatial dependence from some sources and negative dependence from others. The importance of W stands in stark contrast to applied researchers’ typical use of crude proxy variables (such as geographical proximity) to measure true connectivity, and the practice of adopting standard modeling conventions rather than substantive theory to specify W. This study demonstrates which assumptions these conventions impose on specification choices, and argues that theories of spatial dependence will often conflict with them.

 

 

Neumayer, E., Plumper, T.

Inequalities of income and inequalities of longevity: A cross-country study

(2016) American Journal of Public Health, 106 (1), pp. 160-165.

 

DOI: 10.2105/AJPH.2015.302849

ABSTRACT: Objectives. We examined the effects of market income inequality (income inequality before taxes and transfers) and income redistribution via taxes and transfers on inequality in longevity. Methods.Weused life tables to compute Gini coefficients of longevity inequality for all individuals and for individuals who survived to at least 10 years of age. We regressed longevity inequality on market income inequality and income redistribution, and we controlled for potential confounders, in a cross-sectional time-series sample of up to 28 predominantly Western developed countries and up to 37 years (1974-2011). Results. Income inequality before taxes and transfers was positively associated with inequality in the number of years lived; income redistribution (the difference between market income inequality and income inequality after taxes and transfers were accounted for) was negatively associated with longevity inequality. Conclusions.To the extent that our estimated effects derived from observational data are causal, governments can reduce longevity inequality not only via public health policies, but also via their influence on market income inequality and the redistribution of incomes from the relatively rich to the relatively poor.

 

 

Plümper, T., Neumayer, E.

Free-riding in alliances: Testing an old theory with a new method

(2015) Conflict Management and Peace Science, 32 (3), pp. 247-268.

 

DOI: 10.1177/0738894214522916

ABSTRACT: We revisit the old and well-established theory of free-riding in military alliances. Existing empirical evidence infers free-riding from the larger military expenditures per gross domestic product (GDP) of countries of larger GDP. Yet, larger countries have broader military and geostrategic interests that result in larger defense burdens, thus creating an identification problem for existing tests of free-riding behavior. We therefore develop alternative predictions that ignore differences in the level of military spending and instead relate to growth in spending over time. The safety level of smaller members of an alliance is affected, simultaneously, by changes to military spending of the largest alliance member as well as by spending changes of the main enemy. Using the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as test case, we estimate country-specific response functions of the smaller alliance members to growth in US military spending on the one hand and to growth of Soviet spending (if in excess of US growth) on the other, covering the period 1956–1988. Results from our quasi-spatial approach corroborate one part of the theory in that we find the vast majority of the smaller NATO allies to be free-riders. However, our empirical evidence flatly contradicts the other part of the free-riding theory: the extent of free-riding is not a function of country size. Smaller allies free-ride, but the relatively larger of the smaller allies do not free-ride any less than the relatively even smaller alliance partners. © The Author(s) 2014.

 

 

Plümper, T., Neumayer, E.

Terrorism and Counterterrorism: An Integrated Approach and Future Research Agenda

(2014) International Interactions, 40 (4), pp. 579-589.

 

DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2014.901316

ABSTRACT: In this commentary, we make the case that the analysis of terrorism and counterterrorism must be based on an integrated theory that links both issues together. Terrorist groups' ultimate goals must be distinguished from their strategic goals and the strategic logic by which they employ terror and select targets to further their ultimate goals. The strategic logic of terrorism is thus key to understanding patterns of terrorism and the counter-reaction by governments against it. We make the case for a unified approach and suggest major areas for future research. © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

 

 

Neumayer, E., Plümper, T., Epifanio, M.

The peer-effect in counterterrorist policies

(2014) International Organization, 68 (1), pp. 211-234.

 

DOI: 10.1017/S0020818313000362

ABSTRACT: Existing accounts posit that defensively oriented counterterrorist policies create negative externalities and result in regulatory competition that induces governments to increasingly tighten their policies. We argue that rather than causing an unconditional global race to the top, spatial dependence in counterterrorist policies is limited to within groups of countries exposed to a similar level of threat from international terrorism. Countries strongly differ in their propensity to become the target of an international terror attack. Governments can safely ignore counterterrorist policies enacted by countries outside their peer group, but they must pay attention to measures undertaken by their peers. We test several predictions derived from our theory in an empirical analysis of counterterrorist regulations in twenty Western developed-country democracies over the period 2001 to 2008. © 2014 by The IO Foundation.

 

 

Neumayer, E., Plümper, T., Barthel, F.

The political economy of natural disaster damage

(2014) Global Environmental Change, 24 (1), pp. 8-19.

 

DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.03.011

ABSTRACT: Economic damage from natural hazards can sometimes be prevented and always mitigated. However, private individuals tend to underinvest in such measures due to problems of collective action, information asymmetry and myopic behavior. Governments, which can in principle correct these market failures, themselves face incentives to underinvest in costly disaster prevention policies and damage mitigation regulations. Yet, disaster damage varies greatly across countries. We argue that rational actors will invest more in trying to prevent and mitigate damage the larger a country's propensity to experience frequent and strong natural hazards. Accordingly, economic loss from an actually occurring disaster will be smaller the larger a country's disaster propensity - holding everything else equal, such as hazard magnitude, the country's total wealth and per capita income. At the same time, damage is not entirely preventable and smaller losses tend to be random. Disaster propensity will therefore have a larger marginal effect on larger predicted damages than on smaller ones. We employ quantile regression analysis in a global sample to test these predictions, focusing on the three disaster types causing the vast majority of damage worldwide: earthquakes, floods and tropical cyclones. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

 

 

Plümper, T., Neumayer, E.

Health spending, out-of-pocket contributions, and mortality rates

(2013) Public Administration, 91 (2), pp. 403-418.

 

DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9299.2012.02039.x

ABSTRACT: Health policies seek to achieve conflicting objectives. We argue that the objective of saving lives is best served by a careful balancing of fairness and efficiency considerations. Open, fair, and equitable access to health care for all citizens will lower overall mortality rates by enabling the very poor and chronically ill to satisfy their demand for necessary health care. But it will also result in higher costs, not least by also increasing demand for irrelevant, unnecessary, and inefficient health care. This undesirable demand and its associated costs can be reduced by increasing out-of-pocket contributions paid for by patients. Such payments are unpopular, though, as they are regarded as regressive and damaging to health of the relatively poor. We argue that properly enacted, no such apparent trade-offs exist. If the freed-up resources are used for more life-saving measures, then higher out-of-pocket contributions will lower overall mortality rates. However, this beneficial effect is conditional on what happens to total health spending. Ironically, out-of-pocket payments are most effective as health policies if they are not or only hardly used as a means of reducing total health expenditures. Our theoretical arguments are confirmed by an econometric analysis of aggregate mortality rates in OECD countries over the period 1984 to 2007. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

 

 

Neumayer, E., Plümper, T.

Conditional Spatial Policy Dependence: Theory and Model Specification

(2012) Comparative Political Studies, 45 (7), pp. 819-849.

 

DOI: 10.1177/0010414011429066

ABSTRACT: The authors discuss how scholars can bring theories of spatial policy dependence and empirical model specifications closer in line so that the empirical analysis actually tests the theoretical predictions. Comprehensive theories of spatial policy dependence typically suggest that the jurisdictions receiving spatial stimuli systematically differ in their exposure to such signals as a function of the intensity of their interaction with other jurisdictions. Similarly, theories often predict that governments also differ in their responsiveness to any given spatial stimulus as a function of the institutional, political, economic, or social context in which they operate. In other words, theories typically postulate that spatial dependence is conditional on exposure and responsiveness, neither of which is accounted for in the standard empirical practice of estimating one single common coefficient for a row-standardized spatial lag variable. The authors show how scholars can adequately model both forms of heterogeneity with properly specified interaction effects models. © The Author(s) 2012.

 

 

Plümper, T., Neumayer, E.

Fear of floating and de facto exchange rate pegs with multiple key currencies

(2011) International Studies Quarterly, 55 (4), pp. 1121-1142.

 

DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2478.2011.00686.x

ABSTRACT: This paper adopts and develops the "fear of floating" theory to explain the decision to implement a de facto peg, the choice of anchor currency among multiple key currencies, and the role of central bank independence for these choices. We argue that since exchange rate depreciations are passed-through into higher prices of imported goods, avoiding the import of inflation provides an important motive to de facto peg the exchange rate in import-dependent countries. This study shows that the choice of anchor currency is determined by the degree of dependence of the potentially pegging country on imports from the key currency country and on imports from the key currency area, consisting of all countries which have already pegged to this key currency. The fear of floating approach also predicts that countries with more independent central banks are more likely to de facto peg their exchange rate since independent central banks are more averse to inflation than governments and can de facto peg a country's exchange rate independently of the government. © 2011 International Studies Association.

 

 

Keefer, P., Neumayer, E., Plümper, T.

Earthquake Propensity and the Politics of Mortality Prevention

(2011) World Development, 39 (9), pp. 1530-1541.

 

DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2011.02.010

ABSTRACT: Governments can significantly reduce earthquake mortality by enforcing quake-proof construction regulation. We examine why many governments do not. First, mortality is lower in countries with higher earthquake propensity, where the payoffs to investments in mortality prevention are greater. Second, the opportunity costs of these investments are higher in poorer countries; mortality is correspondingly less responsive to propensity in poor countries. Third, mortality is higher at any level of quake propensity when governments have fewer incentives to provide public goods, such as in autocracies with less institutionalized ruling parties or in more corrupt countries. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

 

 

Plümper, T., Troeger, V.E.

Fixed-effects vector decomposition: Properties, reliability, and instruments

(2011) Political Analysis, 19 (2), pp. 147-164.

 

DOI: 10.1093/pan/mpr008

ABSTRACT: This article reinforces our 2007 Political Analysis publication in demonstrating that the fixed-effects vector decomposition (FEVD) procedure outperforms any other estimator in estimating models that suffer from the simultaneous presence of time-varying variables correlated with unobserved unit effects and time-invariant variables. We compare the finite-sample properties of FEVD not only to the Hausman-Taylor estimator but also to the pretest estimator and the shrinkage estimator suggested by Breusch, Ward, Nguyen and Kompas (BWNK), and Greene in this symposium. Moreover, we correct the discussion of Greene and BWNK of FEVD's asymptotic and finite-sample properties. © The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Political Methodology. All rights reserved.

 

 

Neumayer, E., Plümper, T.

Foreign terror on Americans

(2011) Journal of Peace Research, 48 (1), pp. 3-17.

 

DOI: 10.1177/0022343310390147

ABSTRACT: Americans are a major target of international terrorism. Yet, terrorists from some countries are much more likely to attack American citizens than terrorists from other countries. Similarly, anti-American terrorism from a specific foreign country is much more prevalent during certain periods than others. This article develops a rational theory of international terrorism, which argues that attacking foreign nationals is of strategic value to terrorists even if they ultimately aim at gaining political influence in their home country. Attacking foreigners is the more attractive to domestic terrorists the more the terrorists' home government depends on military support from the foreign country. Applied to the US case, our theory predicts that more anti-American terrorism emanates from countries that receive more US military aid and arms transfers and in which more American military personnel are stationed, all relative to the country's own military capacity. Estimations from a directed country dyad sample over the period 1978 to 2005 support the predictions of our theory for both terrorist incidents involving Americans and terrorist killings of Americans as dependent variables. These results are robust to a wide range of changes to the empirical research design. © The Author(s) 2011.

 

 

Neumayer, E., Plümper, T.

Galton's problem and contagion in international terrorism along civilizational lines

(2010) Conflict Management and Peace Science, 27 (4), pp. 308-325.

 

DOI: 10.1177/0738894210374397

ABSTRACT: If terror attacks from groups of one country are followed by similar attacks on the same target from groups of other similar countries, then this could be the consequence of contagion. However, just because one terror incident follows another does not necessarily imply that one is caused by the other or, in other words, that terror attacks are what is called spatially dependent. Rather, both incidents could have been triggered by the same underlying cause. This is known as Galton's problem. One area where this problem is particularly prevalent is international terrorism. According to Huntington, international terrorism is contagious because of civilizational rallying effects. If radical groups from one country attack targets from a country of another civilization, then groups from other countries of the same civilization as the initial terrorist groups will become more likely to also attack this target. Any test of this hypothesis has to solve Galton's problem and thus to disentangle spatial dependence from spatial clustering of attacks and common shocks and trends, which affect similar groups from different countries similarly. Accounting for such potentially confounding effects, we nevertheless find evidence for spatial dependence in international terrorism along civilizational lines in the post-Cold War period and particularly so for specific inter-civilizational combinations. However, while contagion consistent with Huntington's predictions exists, spatial dependence seems to have a substantively small effect on patterns of international terrorism. © The Author(s). 2010. Reprints and permissions.

 

 

Plümper, T., Neumayer, E.

Model specification in the analysis of spatial dependence

(2010) European Journal of Political Research, 49 (3), pp. 418-442.

 

DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-6765.2009.01900.x

ABSTRACT: The recent surge in studies analysing spatial dependence in political science has gone hand-in-hand with increased attention paid to the choice of estimation technique. In comparison, specification choice has been relatively neglected, even though it leads to equally, if not more, serious inference problems. In this article four specification issues are analysed. It is argued that to avoid biased estimates of the spatial effects, researchers need to consider carefully how to model temporal dynamics, common trends and common shocks, as well as how to account for spatial clustering and unobserved spatial heterogeneity. The remaining two specification issues relate to the weighting matrix employed for the creation of spatial effects: whether it should be row-standardised and what functional form to choose for this matrix. The importance of these specification issues is demonstrated by replicating Hays' model of spatial dependence in international capital tax rate competition. Seemingly small changes to model specification have major impacts on the spatial effect estimates. It is recommended that spatial analysts develop their theories of spatial dependencies further to provide more guidance on the specification of the estimation model. In the absence of sufficiently developed theories, the robustness of results to specification changes needs to be demonstrated. © 2009 The Author(s). Journal compilation © 2009 (European Consortium for Political Research).

 

 

Plümper, T., Neumayer, E.

The level of democracy during interregnum periods: Recoding the polity2 score

(2010) Political Analysis, 18 (2), pp. 206-226.

 

DOI: 10.1093/pan/mpp039

ABSTRACT: The polity2 variable from the Polity IV project is the most popular measure of a country's political regime. This article contends that the coding rules employed to create a polity2 score during years of so-called interregnum and affected transitions produce a measure of democracy that lacks face validity. Using both single and multiple imputation methods, we construct and evaluate several variables that offer alternative measures to polity2 during such periods. We recommend that scholars using polity2 test whether their results are robust to using our alternatives and using multiple imputation techniques instead. Where robustness cannot be established, scholars need to theoretically justify the choice of either polity2 or one of the alternatives. © The Author 2010. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Political Methodology. All rights reserved.

 

 

Neumayer, E., Plümper, T.

Making spatial analysis operational: Commands for generating spatial-effect variables in monadic and dyadic data

(2010) Stata Journal, 10 (4), pp. 585-605.

 

DOI: 10.1177/1536867x1101000404

ABSTRACT: Spatial dependence exists whenever the expected utility of one unit of analysis is affected by the decisions or behavior made by other units of analysis. Spatial dependence is ubiquitous in social relations and interactions. Yet, there are surprisingly few social science studies accounting for spatial dependence. This holds true for settings in which researchers use monadic data, where the unit of analysis is the individual unit, agent, or actor, and even more true for dyadic data settings, where the unit of analysis is the pair or dyad representing an interaction or a relation between two individual units, agents, or actors. Dyadic data offer more complex ways of modeling spatial-effect variables than do monadic data. The commands described in this article facilitate spatial analysis by providing an easy tool for generating, with one command line, spatial-effect variables for monadic contagion as well as for all possible forms of contagion in dyadic data. © 2010 StataCorp LP.

 

 

Neumayer, E., Plümper, T.

Spatial effects in dyadic data

(2010) International Organization, 64 (1), pp. 145-166.

 

DOI: 10.1017/S0020818309990191

ABSTRACT: Political units often spatially depend in their policy choices on other units. This also holds in dyadic settings where, as in much of international relations research, analysis focuses on the interaction or relation between a pair or dyad of two political units. Yet, with few exceptions, social scientists have analyzed contagion in monadic datasets only, consisting of individual political units. This article categorizes all possible forms of spatial effect modeling in both undirected and directed dyadic data, where it is possible to distinguish the source and the target of interaction (for example, exporter/importer, aggressor/victim, and so on). This approach enables scholars to formulate and test novel mechanisms of contagion, thus ideally paving the way for studies analyzing spatial dependence between dyads of political units. To illustrate the modeling flexibility gained from an understanding of the full set of specification options for spatial effects in dyadic data, we examine the diffusion of bilateral investment treaties between developed and developing countries, building and extending on Elkins, Guzman, and Simmons's 2006 study. However, we come to different conclusions about the channels through which bilateral investment treaties diffuse. Rather than a capital-importing country being influenced by the total number of BITs signed by other capital importers, as modeled in their original article, we find that a capital-importing country is more likely to sign a BIT with a capital exporter only if other competing capital importers have signed BITs with this very same capital exporter. Similarly, other capital exporters' BITs with a specific capital importer influence an exporter's incentive to agree on a BIT with the very same capital importer. © 2010 by The IO Foundation.

 

 

Plümper, T., Neumayer, E.

The friend of my enemy is my enemy: International alliances and international terrorism

(2010) European Journal of Political Research, 49 (1), pp. 75-96.

 

DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-6765.2009.01885.x

ABSTRACT: Terrorism is an instrument for groups that cannot achieve their political goals legally. One important strategic function of terrorism is to weaken the government - either directly by attacking representatives or supporters of the government or indirectly by causing a political response that is unpopular among the population. Often, however, political stability of the home government is buttressed by foreign powers. In this case, the terrorists can have a strategic interest in attacking nationals of these foreign countries. This article analyses this logic by looking at international alliances as a proxy for international support. If the friend of my enemy is my enemy, then terror entrepreneurs, which seek to overthrow their home country's government (the enemy), may find it attractive to target nationals of the foreign allies of their country (the friends of the enemy). The theory in this article predicts that attacking nationals of a foreign ally is particularly attractive if this ally is militarily more powerful than the home country. Moreover, the combined effect of alliance and relative power differentials becomes stronger the more democratic the ally and becomes weaker the more democratic the terrorists' home country. Empirical support for the hypotheses in this article is found in an analysis of a directed country dyad sample of international terrorism. © 2009 European Consortium for Political Research.

 

 

Plümper, T., Schneider, C.J.

The analysis of policy convergence, or: How to chase a black cat in a dark room

(2009) Journal of European Public Policy, 16 (7), pp. 990-1011.

 

DOI: 10.1080/13501760903226724

ABSTRACT: Political science research on policy convergence has largely remained inconclusive. While many studies found support for the convergence hypothesis, an almost equally large number of studies rejected it. Convergence thus could be a less general phenomenon than many theorists believe. This article identifies a second possible explanation. The variance approach, which dominates political science research on policy convergence, is likely to lead to wrong inferences. Analysing various artificially generated convergence processes, we find that neither the variance approach nor the coefficient of variation detects convergence when it is conditional or when theoretically unidentified convergence clubs exist. Our analysis suggests that researchers should estimate rather than measure convergence. By estimating convergence researchers may (a) test the causal relationship, (b) account for conditional convergence, (c) control for the existence of convergence clubs, and (d) examine convergence to an equilibrium level of a policy. © 2009 Taylor & Francis.

 

 

Plümper, T., Troeger, V.E., Winner, H.

Why is there no race to the bottom in capital taxation?

(2009) International Studies Quarterly, 53 (3), pp. 761-786.

 

DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2478.2009.00555.x

ABSTRACT: This article explains the absence of a race to the bottom in capital taxation by analyzing fiscal competition under budget rigidities and tax equity constraints (fairness norms). We outline a political economic model of tax competition that treats the outcome of tax competition as one argument in the governments utility function, the others being public expenditure and tax equity. In accordance with previous theoretical research, tax competition tends to cause a reduction in taxes on mobile capital and an increase in the tax rates on relatively immobile labor in our model. Yet, our model predicts that governments do not fully abolish taxes on mobile capital. Instead, the government being least restricted by budget constraints and equity norms cuts tax rates to levels slightly below the lowest tax rates of those countries, in which governments are more constrained, where effective constraints are country size, budget rigidities and fairness norms. Analyzing data from 23 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries between 1975 and 2004 we find empirical support for the hypotheses derived from our theoretical model. © 2009 International Studies Association.

 

 

Neumayer, E., Plümper, T.

International terrorism and the clash of civilizations

(2009) British Journal of Political Science, 39 (4), pp. 711-734.

 

DOI: 10.1017/S0007123409000751

ABSTRACT: Huntington referred to a clash of civilizations revealing itself in international terrorism, particularly in the clash between the Islamic civilization and the West. The authors confront his hypotheses with ones derived from the strategic logic of international terrorism. They predict more terrorism against nationals from countries whose governments support the government of the terrorists home country. Like Huntington, they also predict excessive terrorism on Western targets, not because of inter-civilizational conflict per se, but because of the strategic value of Western targets. Contra Huntington, their theory does not suggest that Islamic civilization groups commit more terrorist acts against nationals from other civilizations in general, nor a general increase in inter-civilizational terrorism after the Cold War. The empirical analysis based on estimations in a directed dyadic country sample, 19692005 broadly supports their theory. In particular, there is not significantly more terrorism from the Islamic against other civilizations in general, nor a structural break in the pattern of international terrorism after the Cold War. © 2009 Cambridge University Press.

 

 

Plümper, T., Neumayer, E.

Famine Mortality, Rational Political Inactivity, and International Food Aid

(2009) World Development, 37 (1), pp. 50-61.

 

DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2008.05.005

ABSTRACT: Famine mortality is preventable by government action and yet some famines kill. We develop a political theory of famine mortality based on the selectorate theory of Bueno de Mesquita et al. [Bueno de Mesquita, B. B., Morrow, J. M., Siverson, R. M., & Smith, A. (2002). Political institutions, policy choice and the survival of leaders. British Journal of Political Science, 32(4), 559-590, Bueno de Mesquita, B. B., Smith, A., Siverson, R. M., & Morrow J. M. (2003). The logic of political survival. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press]. We argue that it can be politically rational for a government, democratic or not, to remain inactive in the face of severe famine threat. We derive the testable hypotheses that famine mortality is possible in democracies, but likely to be lower than in autocracies. Moreover, a larger share of people being affected by famine relative to population size together with large quantities of international food aid being available will lower the mortality in both regime types, but more so in democracies. © 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

 

 

Plümper, T., Martin, C.W.

Multi-party competition: A computational model with abstention and memory

(2008) Electoral Studies, 27 (3), pp. 424-441.

 

DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2008.02.010

ABSTRACT: This paper analyses the properties of a computational model of multi-party competition in two policy dimensions. We find that, firstly, centrifugal incentives prevent rational parties from moving to the mean of voters' preference distributions. Secondly, the number of parties competing for votes and the inclination to abstain from voting are positively related to parties' optimum distance to the political centre. Thirdly, the number of parties in the political arena also increases both the distance between parties' location in the policy space and the volatility of their platforms. Finally, the more voters rely on past observations of partisan positioning behaviour in order to assess the credibility of parties, the more the distance between partisan platforms increases. At the same time, platform volatility declines. © 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

 

 

Plümper, T., Troeger, V.E.

Fear of floating and the external effects of currency unions

(2008) American Journal of Political Science, 52 (3), pp. 656-676.

 

DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2008.00335.x

ABSTRACT: The introduction of the Euro has considerably affected the de facto monetary policy autonomy - defined as independence from monetary policy in the key currency areas - in countries outside the European Currency Union (ECU). Using a standard open economy framework, we argue that de facto monetary policy autonomy has significantly declined for countries that dominantly trade with the ECU and slightly increased for countries that dominantly trade with the Dollar zone. The predictions of our model find support in the data. We estimate the influence of the Bundesbank's/ECB's and the Fed's monetary policies on various country groups. The de facto monetary policy autonomy of both non-Euro EU members and EFTA countries declined with the introduction of the Euro. This effect was slightly stronger for the EU member countries than for EFTA countries as our theory predicts. At the same time, the de facto monetary policy autonomy of Australia and New Zealand vis-à-vis the US Dollar has (moderately) increased. © 2008, Midwest Political Science Association.

 

Plümper, T., Schimmelfennig, F.

Without substance. an answer to gross / jungbauer-gans [Ohne Substanz. Eine Antwort an Gross und Jungbauer-Gans]

(2007) Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 48 (3), pp. 559-563.

https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-35348989870&doi=10.1007%2fs11615-007-0092-8&partnerID=40&md5=400d69efba0ce1cb09965222145ef177

 

DOI: 10.1007/s11615-007-0092-8

 

 

Neumayer, E., Plümper, T.

The gendered nature of natural disasters: The impact of catastrophic events on the gender gap in life Expectancy, 1981-2002

(2007) Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 97 (3), pp. 551-566.

 

DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-8306.2007.00563.x

ABSTRACT: Natural disasters do not affect people equally. In fact, a vulnerability approach to disasters would suggest that inequalities in exposure and sensitivity to risk as well as inequalities in access to resources, capabilities, and opportunities systematically disadvantage certain groups of people, rendering them more vulnerable to the impact of natural disasters. In this article we address the specific vulnerability of girls and women with respect to mortality from natural disasters and their aftermath. Biological and physiological differences between the sexes are unlikely to explain large-scale gender differences in mortality rates. Social norms and role behaviors provide some further explanation, but what is likely to matter most is the everyday socioeconomic status of women. In a sample of up to 141 countries over the period 1981 to 2002 we analyze the effect of disaster strength and its interaction with the socioeconomic status of women on the change in the gender gap in life expectancy. We find, first, that natural disasters lower the life expectancy of women more than that of men. In other words, natural disasters (and their subsequent impact) on average kill more women than men or kill women at an earlier age than men. Since female life expectancy is generally higher than that of males, for most countries natural disasters narrow the gender gap in life expectancy. Second, the stronger the disaster (as approximated by the number of people killed relative to population size), the stronger this effect on the gender gap in life expectancy. That is, major calamities lead to more severe impacts on female life expectancy (relative to that of males) than do smaller disasters. Third, the higher women's socioeconomic status, the weaker is this effect on the gender gap in life expectancy. Taken together our results show that it is the socially constructed gender-specific vulnerability of females built into everyday socioeconomic patterns that lead to the relatively higher female disaster mortality rates compared to men. © 2007 by Association of American Geographers.

 

 

Plümper, T., Schneider, C.J.

Discriminatory European union membership and the redistribution of enlargement gains

(2007) Journal of Conflict Resolution, 51 (4), pp. 568-587.

 

DOI: 10.1177/0022002707302793

ABSTRACT: Conflicts between European Union (EU) members about enlargement result from its redistributive effects. EU members are more likely to suffer from enlargement if they profit from EU transfers and if they are relatively close to applicant countries in which unemployment is significantly higher than in member countries. Phasing in membership rights serves to compensate the relative losers of enlargement to accomplish EU widening. Using data from all previous enlargement rounds until 2004, we demonstrate that EU members are more likely to demand a discrimination of new members if distributional conflicts arise. The existence of these distributional conflicts in turn increases the odds of EU members and the accession candidates actually agreeing on a phase-in period. © 2007 Sage Publications.

 

 

Plümper, T., Schneider, C.J.

Too much to die, too little to live: Unemployment, higher education policies and university budgets in Germany

(2007) Journal of European Public Policy, 14 (4), pp. 631-653.

https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-34249088027&doi=10.1080%2f13501760701314458&partnerID=40&md5=ddae435576a072c349b9065ce090c9bf

 

DOI: 10.1080/13501760701314458

ABSTRACT: German educational spending per student has dramatically declined since the early 1970s. In this paper, we develop a theory of fiscal opportunism and argue that state governments exploit higher educational policies as an instrument of active labour market policy. By 'opening' universities to the masses and the extensive propagation of broader university enrolment during times of economic distress, state governments have an instrument at their disposal for lowering unemployment without generating negative budgetary implications. Thereby, the government pockets voter support not only by diminishing unemployment, but also by providing public goods particularly to the socially disadvantaged. At the same time, the state government risks a deterioration of educational quality owing to decreasing educational spending per student. We test our theoretical claims for the German states in a period ranging from 1975 to 2000 by means of panel fixed-effects models. The empirical results robustly support the hypothesis that rising unemployment ratios lead to increased university enrolment, but also significantly reduce the spending per student.

 

 

Plümper, T., Schimmelfennig, F.

Who becomes professor - and when? Determinants of professorial recruitment in German political science [Wer Wird Prof - und Wann? Berufungsdeterminanten in der Deutschen Politikwissenschaft]

(2007) Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 48 (1), pp. 97-117+200.

 

DOI: 10.1007/s11615-007-0008-7

ABSTRACT: The article examines the determinants of professorial recruitment in German Political Science after 1990. More precisely, we analyze which factors influence a) the likelihood of obtaining a tenured professorship, b) the hiring of professors without habilitation, c) the age of obtaining the first tenured professorship, d) the duration between the habilitation and the first tenured professorship. © VS Verlag.

 

 

Pl̈ümper, T., Troeger, V.E.

Efficient estimation of time-invariant and rarely changing variables in finite sample panel analyses with unit fixed effects

(2007) Political Analysis, 15 (2), pp. 124-139.

 

DOI: 10.1093/pan/mpm002

ABSTRACT: This paper suggests a three-stage procedure for the estimation of time-invariant and rarely changing variables in panel data models with unit effects. The first stage of the proposed estimator runs a fixed-effects model to obtain the unit effects, the second stage breaks down the unit effects into a part explained by the time-invariant and/or rarely changing variables and an error term, and the third stage reestimates the first stage by pooled OLS (with or without autocorrelation correction and with or without panel-corrected SEs) including the time-invariant variables plus the error term of stage 2, which then accounts for the unexplained part of the unit effects. We use Monte Carlo simulations to compare the finite sample properties of our estimator to the finite sample properties of competing estimators. In doing so, we demonstrate that our proposed technique provides the most reliable estimates under a wide variety of specifications common to real world data. © 2007 Oxford University Press.

 

 

Plümper, T.

Comparative political economy

(2007) The SAGE Handbook of Comparative Politics, pp. 144-158.

 

DOI: 10.4135/9780857021083.n9

 

 

Plümper, T., Neumayer, E.

The unequal burden of war: The effect of armed conflict on the gender gap in life expectancy

(2006) International Organization, 60 (3), pp. 723-754.

 

DOI: 10.1017/S0020818306060231

ABSTRACT: Most combatants in armed conflict are men, so naturally men are the major direct victims of military operations. Yet armed conflicts have important indirect negative consequences on agriculture, infrastructure, public health provision, and social order. These indirect consequences are often overlooked and underappreciated. They also affect women - arguably more so than men. This article provides the first rigorous analysis of the impact of armed conflict on female life expectancy relative to male. We find that over the entire conflict period, interstate and civil wars on average affect women more adversely than men. In peacetime, women typically live longer than men. Hence, armed conflict tends to decrease the gap between female and male life expectancy. For civil wars, we also find that ethnic wars and wars in "failed" states are much more damaging to women than other civil wars. Our findings challenge policymakers as well as international and humanitarian organizations to develop policies that tackle the large indirect and long-term negative health impacts of armed conflicts. © 2006 The IO Foundation.

 

 

Plümper, T., Troeger, V.E.

Monetary policy autonomy in European non-euro countries, 1980-2005

(2006) European Union Politics, 7 (2), pp. 213-234.

 

DOI: 10.1177/1465116506063708

ABSTRACT: We argue that the European currency union (ECU) reduced the de facto monetary policy autonomy of EU countries abstaining from introducing the euro. The large share of imports from euro zone countries renders a close alignment of monetary policy to the interest rate set by the European Central Bank (ECB) necessary if the monetary authorities of countries outside the ECU want to impede the import of inflation from the euro zone or a declining competitiveness of the domestic industry. In turn, the increasing role of the euro as an international reserve medium equal to the US dollar reduced the monetary policy autonomy of countries importing more goods and services from the euro zone than from the dollar zone. An empirical analysis of monetary policy in the United Kingdom, Denmark and Sweden lends support to our theoretical argument. Analysing the shortterm adjustments of central bank interest rates in these three EU countries, which did not introduce the euro, we show that these countries' monetary policies more closely follow the ECB's policy than they followed the Bundesbank's policy before 1994. In addition, we demonstrate the diminishing influence of the dollar on monetary policy in the UK, Denmark and Sweden since the countries of the Economic and Monetary Union harmonized monetary policies. Copyright © 2006 SAGE Publications.

 

 

de Haan, J., Plümper, T.

European integration, policy autonomy and partisan politics

(2006) European Union Politics, 7 (2), pp. 163-166.

 

DOI: 10.1177/1465116506063843

 

 

Plümper, T., Schneider, C.J., Troeger, V.E.

The politics of EU eastern enlargement: Evidence from a Heckman selection model

(2006) British Journal of Political Science, 36 (1), pp. 17-38.

 

DOI: 10.1017/S0007123406000020

ABSTRACT: The eastern enlargement of the European Union is a twofold process, in which governments of transition countries decide whether or not to apply for membership and in turn EU members decide whether or not to accept these applicants. The authors argue that the level of democracy and the extent of market reforms together determine the first decision, while the second decision is largely determined by the EU observing the reform process in applicant countries imposed by the acquis communautaire conditionality. The natural procedure to test this theory is a Heckman selection model. A Heckman specification with panel probit estimators in both stages is used. The data supports the argument that uncontested reforms signal the policy support of relevant political parties to the EUand increase the likelihood of joining the Union. The authors also test for specification errors and check the robustness of the findings. © 2005 Cambridge University Press.

 

 

Martin, C.W., Plümper, T.

Number of parties, endogenous partisan preferences, and electoral turnout rates: A stochastic equilibrium analysis

(2005) Social Science Computer Review, 23 (3), pp. 347-359.

 

DOI: 10.1177/0894439305275856

ABSTRACT: This article analyzes the impact of the number of parties on turnout rates within an endogenous partisan preference framework. Our results show that the turnout increases in the number of parties under various levels of individual propensity to abstain. We find strong interactions effects between both motives for abstention - alienation and indifference - and the abstention propensity. The results are based on an agent-based computer simulation of multiparty electoral competition in a two-dimensional policy space. © 2005 Sage Publications.

 

 

Mattli, W., Plümper, T.

The demand-side politics of EU enlargement: Democracy and the application for EU membership

(2005) The Politics of European Union Enlargement: Theoretical Approaches, pp. 52-74.

 

DOI: 10.4324/9780203008720

 

 

Plümper, T., Troeger, V.E., Manow, P.

Panel data analysis in comparative politics: Linking method to theory

(2005) European Journal of Political Research, 44 (2), pp. 327-354.

 

DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-6765.2005.00230.x

ABSTRACT: Re-analyzing a study of Garrett and Mitchell ('Globalization, government spending and taxation in the OECD', European Journal of Political Research 39(2) (2001): 145-177), this article addresses four potential sources of problems in panel data analyses with a lagged dependent variable and period and unit dummies (the de facto Beck-Katz standard). These are: absorption of cross-sectional variance by unit dummies, absorption of time-series variance by the lagged dependent variable and period dummies, mis-specification of the lag structure, and neglect of parameter slope heterogeneity. Based on this discussion, we suggest substantial changes of the estimation approach and the estimated model. Employing our preferred methodological stance, we demonstrate that Garrett and Mitchell's findings are not robust. Instead, we show that partisan politics and socioeconomic factors such as aging and unemployment as expected by theorists have a strong impact on the time-series and cross-sectional variance in government spending. © European Consortium for Political Research 2005.

 

 

Plümper, T., Radaelli, C.M.

Publish or perish? Publications and citations of Italian political scientists in international political science journals, 1990-2002

(2004) Journal of European Public Policy, 11 (6), pp. 1112-1127.

 

DOI: 10.1080/1350176042000298138

ABSTRACT: In this article we present data on the publications of Italian political scientists in international journals. We first introduce the reader to the specific context of Italian political science and illustrate the pattern of problematic institutionalization of this discipline in Italy. We then work on our broad set of eighty-nine journals indexed in the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) social science citation index, examined over the period 1990-2002. We present and discuss data on die publications and' citations of all academics with an Italian affiliation in political science journals, and, within this set, political scientists. Judging by our data, Italian political scientists have a limited propensity to participate in the international debate - an indication of the problems encountered by political science as a possible 'European' or 'international discipline'. We also note that, when they publish, Italian political scientists do not engage with major theoretical and/or comparative topics, but prefer to write articles on Italian politics. We conclude with some ideas about how to increase the participation of Italian political scientists in the wider European and international debate.

 

 

Hausken, K., Martin, C.W., Plümper, T.

Government spending and taxation in democracies and autocracies

(2004) Constitutional Political Economy, 15 (3), pp. 239-259.

https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-4544254915&doi=10.1023%2fB%3aCOPE.0000040431.47529.58&partnerID=40&md5=92628f9149e2864021265f608656d76d

 

DOI: 10.1023/B:COPE.0000040431.47529.58

ABSTRACT: The paper develops a theoretical rationale for a non-linear relationship between the level of democracy and government spending. A model is presented showing why and how political participation influences the spending behavior of opportunistic governments that can choose an optimal combination of rents and public goods to attract political support. If the level of democracy remains low, governments rationally prefer rents as an instrument to assure political support. With increasing democratic participation, however, rents become an increasingly expensive (per unit of political support) instrument while the provision of public goods becomes more and more efficient in ensuring the incumbent government's survival in power. As a consequence, an increase in democracy, which drives a country from a pure autocracy to a semi-participatory system, tends to reduce government spending, while an increase in political participation from a semi-participatory country to a full democracy tends to raise the size of the public sector.

 

 

Mattli, W., Plümper, T.

The internal value of external options: How the EU shapes the scope of regulatory reforms in transition countries

(2004) European Union Politics, 5 (3), pp. 307-330.

 

DOI: 10.1177/1465116504045155

ABSTRACT: Most of the literature has treated EU enlargement and the transition of Central and Eastern Europe, two of the most memorable events in recent history, as separate events. We argue that such separation is not warranted; it obfuscates an important fact, namely that the reform process in many Central and East European countries has taken a sui generis turn precisely because of the external EU option. We offer a formal model that explains how and why the EU membership option drives regulation in applicant countries beyond their equilibrium level of regulatory quality. We derive a series of hypotheses from our model and test these hypotheses employing standard panel methods. Empirical results support our model and suggest that approximately 40% of the variance in regulatory quality among transition countries is explained by EU conditionality in the enlargement process. Copyright© 2004 SAGE Publications London.

 

 

W. Martin, C., Plümper, T.

Stammwähler und die opportunistische Wahl parteipolitischer Programme

(2004) Swiss Political Science Review, 10 (2), pp. 1-31.

 

DOI: 10.1002/j.1662-6370.2004.tb00020.x

ABSTRACT: This article explains political radicalism by the number of voters who are biased towards a party. With little voters biased in favor of a party, this party has to rely more heavily on its programmatic distance to other parties. Because large parties – i.e.: parties with a high number of biased voters – gain votes when they move to the center of the political spectrum, parties with a lower number of voters that are biased in their favor are forced to the edges of the policy space. We draw on a computational model of political competition between four parties in a two-dimensional policy space to investigate this relationship. We use panel corrected OLS estimates to analyze the data generated by the computer simulation. Our results substantiate the hypothesis of a negative relationship between the number of biased voters and the inclination of a party to adopt a more extreme policy stance. 2004 The Swiss Political Science Review.

 

 

Plümper, T., Martin, C.W.

Democracy, government spending, and economic growth: A political-economic explanation of the Barro-effect

(2003) Public Choice, 117 (1-2), pp. 27-50.

 

DOI: 10.1023/A:1026112530744

ABSTRACT: The paper develops a political economic argument for the recently observed inverse u-shaped relation between the level of democracy and economic performance. A model is constructed that shows why and how political participation influences the spending behavior of opportunistic governments that can choose an optimal combination of rents and public goods to attract political support. If the level of democracy remains comparably low, governments rationally choose rents as an instrument to assure political support. With increasing democratic participation, however, rents become an increasingly expensive instrument while the provision of public goods becomes more and more efficient in ensuring the incumbent government's survival in power. As a consequence, an increase in democracy tends to raise growth rates of per capita income. However, the beneficial impact of democracy on growth holds true only for moderate degrees of political participation. If - in semi-democratic countries - political participation increases further, governments have an incentive to over-invest in the provision of public goods. This model allows to derive and test three hypothesis: Firstly, based on a simple endogenous growth model, we empirically substantiate our hypothesis of a non-linear, inverse u-shaped relation between the level of democracy and growth of per capita income. Secondly, we show that the impact of government spending on economic growth is higher in more democratic countries. Thirdly, we demonstrate that the level of democracy and government share of GDP are correlated in a u-shaped manner.

 

 

Plümper, T.

Publications and Citation of German Political Science Departments in International Journals, 1990-2002: A Bibliometric Analysis [Publikationstätigkeit und Rezeptionserfolg der Deutschen Politikwissenschaft in internationalen Fachzeitschriften, 1990-2002. Eine bibliometrische Analyse der Veröffentlichungsleistung deutscher politikwissenschaftlicher Fachbereiche und Institute]

(2003) Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 44 (4), pp. 529-544+636+iv.

 

DOI: 10.1007/s11615-003-0097-x

 

Bodenstein, T., Plümper, T., Schneider, G.

Two sides of economic openness: Non-tariff barriers to trade and capital controls in transition countries, 1993-2000

(2003) Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 36 (2), pp. 231-243.

https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-0038209157&doi=10.1016%2fS0967-067X%2803%2900027-8&partnerID=40&md5=298518dad4c10651433334cd9f8d9cef

 

DOI: 10.1016/S0967-067X(03)00027-8

ABSTRACT: This article presents new measures of foreign economic openness in the transition countries that allow us to distinguish between non-tariff barriers to trade and capital controls. We argue that this distinction is important for the analysis of foreign economic relations in the post-communist world. While most states lowered barriers to trade since 1993, they increased the number of capital controls, which had been low at the beginning of the transition process. The ELITE (Economic Liberalization in the Transition Economies) data set, which is based on the IMF statistics on exchange arrangements and exchange restrictions and encompasses 24 transition countries, further demonstrates important exceptions to this trend. The comparison of the ELITE indicators with alternative measurements of economic openness indicates the need to move towards more refined analyses of the political economy of the transition process. © 2003 The Regents of the University of California. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

 

 

Hausken, K., Plümper, T.

Containing contagious financial crises: The political economy of joint intervention into the Asian crisis

(2002) Public Choice, 111 (3-4), pp. 209-236.

 

DOI: 10.1023/A:1014943528057

ABSTRACT: The notion of contagion has changed the way scientists perceive financial crises, causing heated debate on the political economy of crisis intervention. Based on a formal model that shows how a financial crisis can escalate and spread contagiously, this article analyzes game-theoretically how a financial market crisis can be contained through intervention. The central focus is the role that international organizations play in overcoming the collective action problem of joint intervention. It is argued that the IMF support programs were helpful, and probably necessary in a class of cases we analyze more carefully, in surpassing the threshold level of collective action.

 

 

Mattli, W., Plümper, T.

The demand-side politics of EU enlargement: Democracy and the application for EU membership

(2002) Journal of European Public Policy, 9 (4), pp. 550-574.

 

DOI: 10.1080/13501760210152439

ABSTRACT: Most theoretical arguments about enlargement have sought to elucidate why the EU may have an interest in accepting CEECs. While these 'supply-side' arguments are essential building blocks of a comprehensive account of enlargement, they need to be complemented by a theory that seeks to understand the politics and economics of enlargement from a demand-side perspective. We show in a formal model how a transition country's demand for EU membership relates to both regime type and its willingness to implement economic reforms. Specifically, we argue that leaders in more democratic regimes had a greater incentive to push ahead with costly 'institution-building reforms' which, in effect, aligned their countries with EU rules and institutions. The impetus for continuing pro-integration regulatory reforms came from the greater electoral accountability of these leaders. We test this claim with a Cox continuous time survival model with time-dependent covariates. The results confirm the dominant impact of increasing political participation on the likelihood of an EU application.

 

 

Plümper, T., Graff, M.

Export specialization and economic growth

(2001) Review of International Political Economy, 8 (4), pp. 661-688.

 

DOI: 10.1080/09692290110077638

ABSTRACT: Traditional economic wisdom claims that - while global economic integration is beneficial for economic performance - a country's trade specialization pattern has no impact on its economic performance. In this paper, we seek to cast doubt on this aspect of mainstream economics using a very traditional approach. We introduce a simple endogenous growth model that shows how governments can stimulate economic growth by implementing policies that successfully create competitive advantages in favourable sectors. According to new growth theory, favourable sectors inhibit technological spill-over effects to the non-tradable sector. The model is supported by the data. Using a standard augmented aggregate production function we run a series of growth regressions including technological change and a proxy for trade specialization. Our results indicate that contrary to conventional wisdom export specialization matters: sectors are not indistinguishable in their impact on economic performance. The paper concludes with a broader discussion of policy implications.

 

 

Martin, C.W., Plümper, T.

Regimetyp und Wirtschaftswachstum; ein Kommentar (nicht nur) zu Herbert Obinger

(2001) Swiss Political Science Review, 7 (3), pp. 81-102.

 

DOI: 10.1002/j.1662-6370.2001.tb00322.x

ABSTRACT: Dieser Beitrag setzt sich kritisch mit der unter anderem von Herbert Obinger formulierten Hypothese auseinander, derzufolge zwischen dem Regimetyp und dem langfristigen Wirtschaftswachstum kein Zusammenhang besteht. Entgegen dieser These zeigen wir einen systematischen, wenngleich nicht-linearen Zusammenhang auf. Darüber hinaus unterstreichen wir zwar Obingers Ergebnis, die institutionelle Qualität eines Staates sei entscheidend für sein langfristiges Wirtschaftswachstum. Wir bezweifeln jedoch, dass eine hohe institutionelle Qualität unabhängig von der konstitutionellen Verfasstheit der Staaten in Autokratien und Demokratien gleichermassen wahrscheinlich ist. Wir finden einen positiven Einfluss des Demokratieniveaus auf die Qualität wirtschaftlicher Institutionen. © 2001 The Swiss Political Science Review.

 

 

Plümper, T.

Die Politik wirtschaftlichen Wachstums in autoritären Staaten

(2001) Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 42 (1), pp. 79-100.

 

DOI: 10.1007/s11615-001-0005-1

 

 

Schneider, G., Plümper, T., Baumann, S.

Bringing Putnam to the European regions: On the relevance of social capital for economic growth

(2000) European Urban and Regional Studies, 7 (4), pp. 307-317.

 

DOI: 10.1177/096977640000700402

ABSTRACT: One of the most influential contributions to the study of political culture of the 1990s was Robert D. Putnam's book on the positive impact that interpersonal trust supposedly has on economic welfare and the effectiveness of political institutions in Italy. Making Democracy Work showed in bivariate correlations that progress depends largely on the social capital manifest in the Italian regions. We evaluate this hypothesis in a wider sample of regions by analysing quantitatively the role that political culture has on economic growth in the regions of the European Union (EU). We first develop a neoclassical growth model and incorporate political culture variables into this framework. Our cross-sectional regression results cast some doubts on the generalizability of Putnam's bold claims. The analysis particularly shows, in accordance with standard models of economic growth, that economic rather than cultural factors are the most forceful determinants of growth in the European regions. Only one dimension of political culture, the intensity of social communication, has the expected positive impact. © 2000 SAGE Publications.

 

 

Plümper, T., Schulze, G.G.

Steuerwettbewerb und Steuerreformen

(1999) Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 40 (3), pp. 445-457.

 

 

Hausken, K., Plümper, T.

The impact of actor heterogeneity on the provision of international public goods

(1999) International Interactions, 25 (1), pp. 61-94.

 

DOI: 10.1080/03050629908434941

ABSTRACT: The article formally analyses the conditions under which actor heterogeneity may have positive effects on the likelihood that international public goods will be provided, and when a hegemon chooses to act benevolently versus coercively toward the other actors. Within the theory of international cooperation the game-theoretic model crucially rests on the key concepts of hegemonic stability theory. It illustrates with Nash equilibria the conditions under which a hegemon, which may act benevolently versus coercively, rationally chooses to give up the unilateral provision of international public goods under which followers rationally switch from free-riding in their consumption of the public goods to taking part in leading. One implication of the model is that the emergence of joint economic leadership leads to multiple equilibria in the sense of allowing for multiple stable leadership constellations. The actors are in a mixed-motive or coordination game where they have different preferences for the equilibria, and thus different preferences for which strategies to choose, and for who is to take part in covering the cost of the production of the public goods. This constellation gives rise to a second-order conflict about which equilibrium to choose. © 1999 OPA (Overseas Publishers Association) N.V. Published by license under the Gordon and Breach Publishers imprint.

 

 

Genschel, P., Plumper, T.

Regulatory competition and international co-operation1

(1997) Journal of European Public Policy, 4 (4), pp. 626-42.

 

DOI: 10.1080/135017697344109

ABSTRACT: Recent research has shown that regulatory competition does not necessarily lead to downward pressures on regulation, but may at times also push the level of regulation upwards. Extending David Vogel’s ‘California effect’ argument, this article shows that such upward pressure may not only result directly from the dynamics of the competitive process but also from international co-operation. Evidence from two case studies on international capital market regulation is used to identify the conditions under which co-operation in the shadow of regulatory competition is likely to succeed or fail. The successful multilateral standardization of banking capital requirements in the BIS is compared to failed attempts to harmonize interest taxation across EC member states. © 1997 Routledge.

 

Hausken, K., Plümper, T.

Hegemonic decline and international leadership

(1996) Politics and Society, 24 (3), pp. 273-295.

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DOI: 10.1177/0032329296024003006